Peter Brandt Warns Bitcoin’s ATH Lacks Conviction, Predicts Potential 75% Slump

Key Takeaways:

• Legendary Trader Peter Brandt notes it's been 30 weeks since Bitcoin reached its last all-time high (ATH)
• He explained that history has shown that the BTC price often drops 75% after failing new ATHs.
• Rising US inflation and Bitcoin ETF outflows add further selling pressure on BTC prices. 

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently highlighted that Bitcoin hasn't hit an all-time high (ATH) in over 30 weeks, a signal that often leads to major market corrections.

This comes amid growing bearish sentiment, challenging the hopeful ‘Uptober' BTC price rally many expected. With rising inflation and exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, the outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain.

Peter Brandt Cites ‘Market Analogs' to Support His Bitcoin Decline Projections

In an X post on October 11, Peter Brandt discussed the concept of “market analogs,” which he explained is a precursor to major market corrections, with declines of over 75% seen in similar situations before.

Hey Bitcoiners
Are you familiar with the concept of "market analogs?"
Here is something to think about
It has been 30 weeks since $BTC made an ATH
Whenever has not made a decisive new ATH within this time length a 75%+ decline has occurred pic.twitter.com/CUyK4C2W93

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 11, 2024

Peter Brandt's reference to “market analogs” is a technique that involves identifying similar situations in the past where the price movement of an asset, like Bitcoin, followed a certain pattern under specific conditions.

To put things into perspective, BTC's last ATH was at $73,750. But after reaching that peak, its value dropped quickly. Since then, Bitcoin has had trouble bouncing back.

Various factors, including geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, have contributed to this stagnation. 

How the recent Israeli-Palestinian tensions could potentially influence #Bitcoin.

Often, in moments of geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin is perceived as a refuge for assets. Consequently, the escalation may drive a surge in Bitcoin demand as investors look to shield their… pic.twitter.com/ORKyDjLO6l

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) October 8, 2023

Brandt’s warning is critical as Bitcoin continues to show resilience but remains 17.73% below its ATH.

According to the legendary trader, when Bitcoin fails to establish a definitive new ATH within this timeframe, historical data suggests a major drop is likely. 

Data from Brandt’s chart showed that Bitcoin is trading near its 8-week simple moving average (SMA) of $60,998, a key level for price action. Bitcoin's value could drop if it doesn't go above this level.

Technical Analysis Vs Inherent Value?

However, not everyone agrees with Brandt's analysis. Fellow veteran trader Mike Alfred offered a contrasting viewpoint.  

According to Alfred, Peter Brandt’s focus on technical chart patterns overlooks the broader picture. BTC price often defies conventional analysis due to its unique position as a global financial asset. 

Are you a bitcoiner or a chart trader? Eventually you have to choose or you will have less Bitcoin. I remember what you said in October 2023 about what BTC could do vividly. Bitcoin does not follow anyone’s rules.

— Mike Alfred (@mikealfred) October 11, 2024

Alfred argues that Bitcoin's long-term strength lies in its ability to resist inflationary pressures, especially as governments continue to print fiat currencies. In his view, looking solely at past price trends ignores Bitcoin’s true potential and its resilience against economic uncertainties.

Peter Brandt, however, stands firm on his position.

Despite being critical of Bitcoin’s current price action, he revealed that Bitcoin is still the largest asset in his portfolio. His analysis does not attempt to undermine Bitcoin’s long-term value but to provide a realistic view based on past market behaviors. 

Just making an observation. Bitcoin is the largest single tradeable asset in my net worth. He who cannot look both ways usually ends up in a car accident

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 11, 2024

For Brandt, recognizing these patterns is crucial for understanding potential risks, even for an asset with as much promise as Bitcoin.

This divergence of opinions underscores the ongoing discussion within the cryptocurrency community.

The disagreement pits technical analysts like Brandt, who utilize historical trends to inform their forecasts, against proponents like Alfred, who emphasize Bitcoin's inherent value and expanding influence in the global financial landscape.