Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook Unshaken by 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Key Takeaways:

• Experts predict Bitcoin will likely reach six figures by 2025.
• Analysts at Bernstein forecast a possible Bitcoin surge to $80,000 if Trump wins and a temporary dip to $40,000 if Harris is victorious.
• Bitcoin’s price has been relatively unaffected by recent election debates, with larger influence coming from global economic conditions.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws closer, many cryptocurrency analysts and neutral market observers speculate about Bitcoin's potential price movement based on the outcome. 

However, experts maintain that Bitcoin's long-term performance is more closely tied to global macroeconomic trends than to the winner of the November election. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris secures victory, Bitcoin is expected to thrive in the years to come.

Bitcoin Price Predictions Amid Election Uncertainty

In a recent interview with CNBC, two crypto experts shared their optimistic outlook on Bitcoin's future performance.

Steven Lubka, head of private clients at Swan Bitcoin, and James Davies, co-founder of Crypto Valley Exchange, anticipate significant growth for the cryptocurrency, driven by global macroeconomic factors rather than U.S. political developments.

Lubka predicts that Bitcoin will reach six figures by 2025, driven by a combination of fiscal and monetary policies that will continue to erode trust in traditional fiat currencies and fuel demand for decentralized assets.

Davies concurs with this assessment. He argues that while short-term market fluctuations are unavoidable, the overall trajectory of the cryptocurrency market remains decidedly bullish.

Davies also stresses that the growing presence of institutions in the Bitcoin space, particularly through the increasing popularity of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), will provide a sturdy foundation for the cryptocurrency's resilience.

And while US-based crypto firms might be at a disadvantage under a Kamala Harris presidency, Davies stresses that Bitcoin's global appeal shields the asset from strict US-centric rules.

Similarly, analysts at Bernstein predict that a Trump victory could push Bitcoin’s price to $150,000, while a Harris win might temporarily drive it down to $40,000. 

Bitcoin Could Soar To $90K If Trump Wins, But Harris Might Crash It To $30K | Macro Monday https://t.co/ZznL5kTSwR

— Mario Nawfal’s Roundtable (@RoundtableSpace) September 9, 2024

However, Lubka argues that while these movements may occur immediately after the election, the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin will remain unchanged, with global conditions continuing to impact price movement.

Fears of aggressive regulatory policies under a Harris administration have raised concerns within the crypto community. 

Although Harris has not publicly stated her position on cryptocurrencies, some speculate she may take a similar regulatory stance as Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

Despite these fears, Bitcoin has consistently shown resilience under regulatory scrutiny throughout its history. Election news has had a muted impact on Bitcoin's price in recent months, as global economic developments, such as interest rates and inflation data, have been the primary drivers.