Bitcoin Could Swing ‘Either Direction’ Depending on US Election Outcome

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s price may move at least 10% in response to the US election results.
• Market analysts are watching closely as election volatility has already led Bitcoin’s index to reach a three-month high.
• Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have distinct approaches to crypto, potentially influencing investor sentiment.

As Americans head to the polls, market participants are preparing for a potential Bitcoin price swing, estimated to reach at least 10% in either direction, according to a leading crypto trader. 

With both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump incorporating digital asset policy into their campaigns, this election season has led to heightened attention on the crypto market as investors brace for potential volatility.

Bitcoin Price Movements Ahead of Election Day

Bitcoin has seen a rollercoaster week, beginning October 28 at around $67,700, briefly spiking to nearly $73,300 in October, then dipping as low as $67,719 on November 3. 

BTC exchanged hands at $68,595 at press time, with volatility nearing three-month highs. 

According to an analysis shared on X by pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades, a 10% move in Bitcoin price is anticipated post-election, depending on which candidate wins.

#Bitcoin Not the cleanest looking weekly candle this week but with what's coming I don't think it really matters either way.

I think there is a good probability that price will see at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends op winning the election this week. pic.twitter.com/OMvGCpr3Ba

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) November 3, 2024

The Republican candidate Donald Trump has aligned his campaign with crypto-friendly initiatives, including promises to remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler and establish the US as the “world capital of crypto.” 

Trump’s support among crypto enthusiasts was reflected on Polymarket, where his odds peaked at 67% in October, though they dropped to 56% after a recent correction. 

Polymarket’s odds closely reflect polling data from FiveThirtyEight, which shows a tight race, with Harris holding a narrow lead of 0.9 percentage points as of November 3.

In contrast, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has advocated a regulatory approach to crypto, especially in appeals to Black male voters. 

Harris’ stance focuses on a structured framework to manage digital assets and their risks, contrasting with Trump’s deregulated, pro-crypto stance. 

Speculations on the Post-Election Bitcoin Price Movement

Market speculations suggest that a Trump victory could trigger a price rally for Bitcoin, with some traders forecasting a potential high of $100,000. 

Conversely, some analysts warn that a Harris win might lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin’s price by year-end, as the market anticipates more regulatory measures under her administration.

Interesting to see charts getting decimated as $BTC pulls back from resistance with US elections looming

Huge amount of uncertainty in the markets right now. Kamala up from her ~33% low on @Polymarket to ~46% now. I don't think either result is "priced in" yet, despite what many… pic.twitter.com/ZfbLKmP5mb

— フ ォ リ ス (@follis_) November 3, 2024

The stakes for crypto are high, with the election result potentially setting a precedent for digital asset management in the US.

Beyond the election, market participants are optimistic about the potential continuation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Fed recently implemented a 50-basis-point reduction on September 18. 

Analysts widely expect additional cuts, a trend seen as favorable for crypto as it increases the appeal of high-return assets like Bitcoin over traditional savings and term deposits.